Climate change is widely recognized as a major threat to biodiversity and a critical factor contributing to the decline in species and populations. It is crucial to understand whether continental and island species respond differently to climate change, particularly in terms of their distribution ranges.

In a study published in Integrative Conservation, researchers from Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden (XTBG) investigated how climate change will impact endangered species differently, specifically focusing on two sister species of Trigonobalanus in tropical Asia.

Using ecological niche models, they projected how the distribution of the two sister species (continental species T. doichangensis  and  island species T. verticillata) may change under various climate scenarios for the 2050s and the 2070s.

Their study revealed that precipitation and temperature conditions significantly shape species distribution patterns. Specifically, the cumulative contribution of temperature factors affecting the potential distribution of the continental species T. doichangensis was 74.2%, while precipitation factors contributed 37.7% to the potential distribution of the island species T. verticillata.

The mean diurnal range, isothermality, and precipitation of the warmest quarter are the dominant environmental variables affecting the distribution of the continental species T. doichangensis. For the island species T. verticillata, the dominant environmental variables are precipitation seasonality, elevation, mean temperature of the wettest quarter, and temperature seasonality.

Temperature emerged as the critical factor influencing the distribution of the continental species T. doichangensis in Asia, whereas precipitation was the primary factor affecting the distribution of the island species T. verticillata.

Moreover, their findings suggest that the potential distribution range of the narrowly distributed continental species T. doichangensis is likely to expand, whereas that of the widely distributed island species T. verticillata is expected to decrease. The potential distribution areas of both species, particularly higher elevations and mountaintops in low-latitude tropical regions, are expected to serve as refuges under climate change.

“Our study underscores the distinct responses of continental and island species to climate change, thereby enhancing our understanding of how these species will respond to future environmental shifts,” said MENG Honghu of XTBG.

Contact

MENG Honghu Ph.D

Center for Integrative Conservation, Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Mengla, 666303 China

E-mail: menghonghu@xtbg.ac.cn

First published: 19 March 2025