Climate change effect on the habitat suitability of Clausena lansium in China via an optimized maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model

Song, Jianhua

ECOLOGICAL FRONTIERS

2026

46

2

Bai, Y

Global climate change is significantly affecting agricultural patterns; however, its potential impacts on the geographical distribution of economically important crops remain unclear. This study is the first to apply a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model, optimized using indices such as Omission Rate, Delta AICc to ensure high predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.973), to evaluate the spatiotemporal dynamics of potentially suitable habitats for Clausena lansium. It integrates 178 species distribution points and 44 multi-source environmental variables were integrated to assess these dynamics under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) for current and future scenarios in China. The current potential distribution of C. lansium covers a total suitable area of 6.06 & times; 105 km2, with highly suitable habitats concentrated in the low-latitude and low-altitude regions of southern China, showing major concentrations in Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, Yunnan, and Fujian. The main environmental determinants were the annual temperature range (Bio7), annual mean temperature (Bio1), and precipitation of the driest quarter (Bio17). Future projections suggest a potential overall expansion of suitable habitats, accompanied by a northeastward shift in the distribution centroid. Under the high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), the highly suitable area is projected to increase by approximately 119% by the 2090s. Furthermore, by integrating species distribution modeling with land-use data, priority planting zones covering an area of 3.11 & times; 105 km2 were delineated. These findings provide a scientific basis for strategic industrial planning, species introduction, and climate risk management of C. lansium, thereby supporting the sustainable development of regional agricultural systems.